The Polling Shift That Could Crack the Two-Party System | Behind the Numbers w/ Rick & Andrew Wilson

Rick Wilson and Andrew Wilson break down the polling shift that could reshape the 2026 midterms: 47% of Americans now identify as independent, Trump’s approval is underwater, and six in ten voters reject his economy.

On Behind the Numbers, Rick and Andrew explain why the middle of America is leaving both major parties, why Iran and gas prices could become a brutal issue for Republicans, why Democrats cannot let MAGA “own the flag,” and which Senate races could surprise everyone in 2026.

00:00 Intro
00:32 America’s Political Identity Is Shifting
02:22 The New Political Groups Defining America
04:32 Abortion, Race, Health Care, and Wedge Issues
09:10 Independents Outnumber Both Parties
10:05 Could America Become a Multi-Party System?
15:40 Could an Independent Win the Presidency?
18:04 Rick and Andrew Debate Ranked Choice Voting
22:07 Trump’s Approval Is Underwater
22:50 Six in Ten Reject Trump’s Economy
23:49 Iran, Gas Prices, and Trump’s Bad Week
26:05 America’s 250th and the Patriotism Gap
29:07 Why Democrats Lost Rural Voters
31:27 Surprise Senate Races to Watch
34:21 Iowa, Nebraska, and the Midwest Warning Sign
35:21 Florida, Georgia, and Texas Races
36:52 Why Democrats Need the Base Plus Rule
38:21 Wrap Up

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