USDJPY Long-Term Uptrend Still Intact
The USDJPY daily chart continues to respect its long-term ascending channel despite the recent correction from the 163–164 resistance zone. Price has reached one of the strongest technical support areas around 156.10–152.10, where multiple confluences come together. This zone is supported by the lower boundary of the rising channel, Fibonacci retracement levels, previous swing highs, and dynamic moving averages. At the same time, the CCI has reached deeply oversold territory, a condition that has historically preceded strong bullish reversals on this pair.
From a fundamental perspective, the Bank of Japan remains cautious about aggressive monetary tightening despite gradually moving away from ultra-loose policy. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve still maintains relatively high interest rates, preserving the yield advantage of the U.S. dollar. Although expectations of future Fed rate cuts create short-term volatility, the long-term interest rate differential continues to support USDJPY unless macroeconomic conditions change significantly. Any stronger U.S. inflation data or hawkish Fed comments could quickly restore bullish momentum.
Technically, I expect buyers to defend the current demand zone before attempting another move toward the previous highs. Confirmation of the bullish scenario would come from a successful hold above 156.10 followed by a recovery through 160.00 and 163.70. If momentum strengthens, the next major objective lies near 170.90–171.50, which also aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term channel. A failure to hold above 152.10 would invalidate this bullish structure and open the way for a deeper correction.
Overall, the higher timeframe trend remains bullish, while the current decline appears to be a corrective pullback into a high-probability accumulation area rather than the beginning of a new bearish trend.
