On Sunday, Spain defeated Argentina in extra time to win the 2026 World Cup in thrilling fashion. While the celebration continues, Lamine Yamal and crew are already the favorites to retain the trophy at the 2030 tournament. Yes, as you can see, there are already betting odds for that.
After winning the World Cup for the second time in the country’s history, DraftKings immediately installed Spain as the +500 favorites to win the next edition.
France comes in second in the World Cup winner market at +600, followed by England at +900 and Portugal at +1000.
The next teams on the betting board are Germany, Brazil and Argentina, all at +1100.
The market drops considerably after the leading contenders, and the long shots include the United States, which is currently the 19th favorite to win it all at +8000 after its round-of-16 exit on home soil in 2026. There is some optimism on the USMNT front, as the team should feature 2026 World Cup breakout star Folarin Balogun.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side reached the knockout stage before being eliminated, but unlike this year’s tournament, the Americans will have to qualify for the 2030 World Cup rather than receiving automatic entry as hosts.
Prediction markets paint a similar picture when it comes to the favorites. At Kalshi, Spain is currently given a 17 percent chance of winning the 2030 World Cup, with France close behind at 15 percent.
Despite falling just short in the final, Argentina come in third at 11 percent, highlighting how highly they are still regarded heading into the next four-year cycle.
Spain’s performance on Sunday in New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium was more convincing than the 1-0 extra-time scoreline suggested, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner in the 106th minute after Argentina had been reduced to 10 men following Enzo Fernandez’s red card late in regulation. And as we look ahead, there are several reasons why Spain has opened as the team to beat in 2030.
Much of the squad that lifted the trophy is expected to remain together, while Yamal could be an even bigger force by the time the next World Cup arrives.
Already regarded by many as soccer’s next global superstar and the heir to Lionel Messi, Yamal will be entering his prime in 2030.
Spain will also have the advantage of playing on home soil, as the team is one of the tournament’s three co-hosts, along with Portugal and Morocco, another factor that has installed the reigning world champions as the early favorites to go back-to-back.
Argentina’s place among the favorites will also be one of the biggest storylines over the next four years.
Messi was left in tears after Spain’s extra-time winner denied Argentina back-to-back World Cup titles, and the Albiceleste’s +1100 odds likely reflect the expectation that the legendary forward will no longer be part of the squad by the time the 2030 tournament begins.
While Spain looks primed to defend their crown with a young core and home-field advantage, the race to lift the World Cup in 2030 has almost four years to now take shape. Which means a lot can change between now and then, including most of the team’s rosters.
