Burnham at centre of row over calling early election after Labour coronation

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Andy Burnham has found himself at the heart of a growing row over whether he will have the authority to be prime minister without calling a general election after his coronation as Labour leader.

MPs from across the party are urging him not to go to the country early, as the Tories, SNP, Greens and Reform prepare for a possible election between September this year and May next year.

With the likelihood of a leadership contest to succeed Sir Keir Starmer rapidly receding, Mr Burnham is being advised in some quarters that he will not have the necessary mandate for change if he fails to call an election.

Home Office minister Mike Tapp, who opposed Sir Keir being replaced, has publicly called for one, while one of Mr Burnham's main backers has privately warned: "We will be trapped with the empty 2024 manifesto if he doesn't go to the country."

But figures on the hard left of the party, including former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, have told him he does not need an election to have authority for change amid fears many of them could lose their seats to Reform and the Greens.

There has been mounting speculation that the MP for Makerfield could call a general election to take advantage of a boost in support for Labour following his return to frontline politics.

But Mr Burnham’s office has dismissed the speculation as he seeks to avoid upsetting MPs, even though a win would give him five years in office, rather than the three he could currently have.

Tensions have been further raised by interventions by former PM John Major, who warned that dealing with buses in Manchester is very different from handling Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and former deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine, who said Mr Burnham risks being "an empty mouth" instead of a real candidate for change.

New polling this week revealed the party has enjoyed a significant bounce with Mr Burnham appearing all but certain to replace Sir Keir. Labour’s approval ratings have plummeted since it won a historic general election victory in 2024, but there are hopes that if Mr Burnham becomes prime minister he could draw a line under the chaos of the party’s first two years in office.

However, a number of MPs – some of whom have very small majorities – are pleading with him not to take the risk, when an election does not need to be called until 2029

Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson, on the hard left of the party, warned: “We'd get battered if he did”, while Rachael Maskell said there is “no need for a general election”.

“People vote for a party and a manifesto. They do not change. We are not a presidential system but a parliamentary democracy, so who holds which job has never been a decision of the electorate”, she told The Independent.

Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell added: “We don’t have a presidential system and so I don’t think we need an election. Andy Burnham may want to demonstrate what he can do for a period before he goes to the electorate to ask for their support.”

Another senior MP warned: “Definitely not!”, while Burnham ally Luke Charters insisted: “It’s not on the cards.”

A third Labour MP with a small majority dubbed it a “terrible idea”, while a party source added: "We've just been through two years of turmoil, I don't think the public would appreciate a general election right now. It would waste more time and energy rather than getting on with fixing the country."

It comes after a poll showed that Labour has gained six points in the wake of Sir Keir announcing he will resign as party leader and prime minister with the prospect of a “coronation” for Mr Burnham looking likely.

The FindOutNow poll, usually the strongest for Reform, has put Labour just three points behind Nigel Farage’s party.

The survey – which spoke to 2,140 adults on 24 and 25 June – put Labour up six points to 21 per cent, Reform down three to 24 per cent, the Greens down two to 15 per cent and Tories up one to 18 per cent.

Meanwhile, YouGov polling shows that Mr Burnham beats all the other party leaders in head-to-heads for best prime minister. The closest is Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who he beats by 4 per cent but he has almost double Nigel Farage’s rating of 43 per cent to 23 per cent.

However, an MRP poll from January, which is the latest of this type available, indicated that Labour would slump to sixth place and see its worst result in more than 100 years if a general election were held.

The poll, a constituency-level survey which spoke to more than 5,500 people, predicted Reform would more than double its vote share from the last general election to 31 per cent, and surge from its current six MPs to a Commons majority of 335.

Labour MPs in rural areas and those with high Muslim populations are at particular risk of losing their seats as a result of the party’s decision to put an inheritance tax on agricultural properties and its stance on the war on Gaza.

Last week, a spokesperson for Mr Burnham said he is “not considering an early election”, but an ally of the Makerfield MP, who admitted they could lose their seat, said he “would be silly not to contemplate” one.

While the party risks losing seats if a general election were held soon, there is some sentiment that an election in Mr Burnham’s honeymoon period could be less damaging for the party than an election in three years if the economy has failed to recover.

The Burnham ally said: “I think if Andy Burnham becomes PM and enjoys a bounce, finds himself five points ahead with a Reform party that's in disarray, then why wouldn't you think about going early?”

They added: “There are bigger stakes here than whether you know 50, 60, 70, maybe 100 Labor MPs are going to have a job in parliament for the next two or three years.

“This would be about making sure you have a democratic mandate. The political charge that comes with being leader in waiting and then prime minister isn't there for him, and he does need a mandate, especially given if he wants to establish himself and make some quite dramatic changes to the constitution and to the economy, which, let's be honest, the Labour 2024 manifesto certainly doesn't give permission for, as vague as it is.”

Another Labour backbencher said: “If he gets a good early poll lead I think he should. Not for any moral reason but just to take advantage of honeymoon”.

Meanwhile, Scottish Labour MPs fear an early election would wipe them out. One said: “We should wait”, while another added: “It would be a massive risk.”

The Independent understands Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has told his party to be ready for a general election in May 2027.

And one SNP candidate and a Tory MP have added that they have started fundraising for an autumn election.

Meanwhile, a senior Tory source pointed out that the party has readopted all its MPs with the expectation of Mr Burnham going for an election between September this year and May 2027 at the latest.

One source said: “If he is bold he will do it because Reform are not ready, the Conservatives are a long way off from reviving their brand and he can use the bounce in the polls to win.”