Egypt secure Round of 32 tie with Australia as Iran denied second place in Group G with late VAR call
Egypt will play Australia in Dallas on July 3 after securing second place in Group G in a hugely dramatic 1-1 draw with Iran on Friday night.An entertaining first half burst into life after just five minutes, when Mahmoud Saber’s shot went through Iran goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand’s legs and in off a defender. Iran reacted and four minutes later won a penalty. Mehdi Taremi signposted his finish and saw it saved, but Ramin Rezaeian equalized in the 15th minute, reacting fastest to a Mohammadi saved shot and steering home a 0.07 xG chance from a tight angle.With Belgium 2-0 up early in the second half of the other game in Group G, this match was finely poised. A third goal — from Kevin De Bruyne — dropped Egypt to second and put Belgium top, so there was a definite motive for Hossam Hassan’s side to retake the lead. New Zealand pulling one back against Belgian briefly put Egypt back on top of the group, but Romelu Lukaku restored Belgium’s three goal advantage.But there was huge drama in injury time as Iran thought Shoja Khalilzadeh had given them a dramatic win, only for VAR to cruelly rule it out for offside. Iran then forced two more golden opportunities as Egypt hung on — just — to claim the point that sends them through to the knockouts.Iran are not confirmed as one of the best eight third-placed sides, but The Athletic’s projection model strongly fancies them to make it through to the Round of 32.Simon Hughes and Laurie Whitwell analyze the game.How far can Egypt go in the knockouts?In the space of 15 minutes in Seattle, the emotions of this match shook violently, especially for Egypt.When Mohamed Salah was removed by Hossam Hassan, as he chased the goal that would take him level with his coach as the all-time top scorer for his country, he promptly applied heavy strapping to his left leg.
Salah had to come off injured in the second half (Stu Forster/Getty Images)Soon, news that Belgium had extended their lead over New Zealand was met with a huge groan.Drawing against Iran, Egypt were pushed into second place. On cold reflection, it was difficult to tell whether this might actually a good thing for Egypt because they were most likely to face South Korea at this stadium before potentially moving onto a date with the USMT.
The balance suddenly meant that instead they would have to travel to Dallas to play Australia. After that, potentially Lionel Messi featuring Argentina (perhaps this great nation should be billed that way these days).And yet, the dynamic would change again because over in Vancouver, New Zealand scored a consolation. In Seattle, a huge roar. Moments later, Belgium scored again. Another groan. A goal for Iran. But VAR disallows it. Iran then hit the crossbar. And finally, Dallas beckons for Egypt after all.Ultimately, both potential round of 32 opponents gave Egypt a chance of progression. They are a decent side, Salah is playing well and he now has the support of other attacking players.They’ll need Salah to be available, though.Simon HughesA night of contrasting emotions for IranIran made a strong come back to conceding early, equalising nine minutes later, even after Mehdi Taremi missed a penalty, but into the second half they appeared content at 1-1.They sat back with five defenders, four in midfield, and Taremi the lone striker, confident in their ability to repel Egypt but not really offering any threat up front.Clearly, Iran felt a draw in Seattle would be sufficient to qualify for the knock-out phase, leaving them on three points and zero goal difference. They knew for sure that would be better than the records of South Korea, Scotland and Uruguay, meaning they only need one more result to go their way in the final round of group stage games.Croatia, Algeria, DR Congo are the teams who could overtake Iran, condemning them to one of the bottom four spots in the third-place table and elimination. For that to happen, Croatia need to draw against Ghana, Algeria must get a point versus Austria, and Congo have to beat Uzbekistan.That sequence of results doesn’t seem too outlandish but it has such a low probability that The Athletic’s projection model puts Iran’s progress at 92 per cent.Still, Iran’s strategy led to tension in the closing stages, with their defenders needing to make a series of blocks and tactical fouls.Saeid Ezatolahi was booked for bringing down Omar Marmoush at an Egypt counter.It was a tightrope walk that, with one wrong step, would have seen their chances of the last-32 plunge to zero per cent in defeat. But at the same time Egypt settled into accepting a draw that would send them through in second, and that invited Iran to attack and the game finished in dramatic style.In the 93rd minute, Iran celebrated a goal that would have guaranteed their qualification as runners-up. After a scramble to a free-kick, Shojae Khalilzadeh struck the ball in, prompting joyous scenes of immense emotion, as the whole Iran squad gathered in a huddle. Khalilzadeh brought out a pair of sunglasses to mark the moment. But VAR intervened, ruling Khalilzadeh offside by a toe.
Iran celebrate the goal that never was (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)It was a cruel intervention, after Taremi had a winning goal against Belgium struck off in a similarly tight offside call via VAR. Iran nearly got another winner against Egypt, with Ezatolahi hitting the bar, but now they face something of an anxious wait.Laurie WhitwellA physical, entertaining first halfWhen there are four bookings in the first half for bad tackles, you know there has been a game.Fair play to both Egypt and Iran for having a right go at each other in Seattle.This was a fiesta of nervous energy, late tackles, forceful shoulder barges and a decent amount of quick, entertaining football.
(Stu Forster/Getty Images)There was more on the line for Iran, of course, but Egypt suddenly look like a team that wants to leave a mark, rather than try and defend its way through a tournament and hope a bit of magic in attack makes the difference.The manager, Hossam Hassan, deserves credit for bringing this layer of interest. He has picked the same four attacking players in each group game but has moved them around and Egypt are less predictable as a consequence.Iran, meanwhile, have been fearless in each of their matches. After Egypt scored early, backed by many more Egyptians in Seattle, it threatened to be very difficult for Iran but had it not been for the goalkeeping brilliance of Mostafa Shobeir, they’d have taken control.Simon Hughes
