As John wrote about earlier today, a State of Emergency has been declared in Crimea as the peninsula is being turned into an island with no real access to it sufficient to keep it supplied.
There is a huge traffic jam—for people who still have any fuel left to escape—of people who are trying to use the Crimean bridge that Putin built as a monument to himself and as the direct access for Russia to Crimea.
That bridge is damaged, but still functional enough for civilian traffic to use, if not heavy military trucks and trains. There is speculation that Zelensky has intentionally left it functional enough to facilitate civilians escaping the peninsula, although few thought his dream of making Crimea unlivable would come to pass.
It is coming to pass.
Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea announce state of emergency amid intensified Ukrainian drone attacks.The statement comes a few days after large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes that hit a railway bridge across the North Crimean Canal, fuel facilities, and military infrastructure across occupied Crimea.
I've been writing a few posts recently about the dramatic shift in Russia's fortunes in the war, and many of my commenters have scoffed. I was being a "homer," rooting too hard for Ukraine and buying their propaganda.
No. I, too, thought that Russia would be able to maintain enough of a stalemate in the war that it could never lose. That is why I was critical of Western policies to "fight to the last Ukrainian." I believed that Ukraine should cut a deal with Russia and end the war because it was bloody and useless. Russia was there to stay.
But a funny thing happened when Trump decided to change US support for Ukraine, not that I am suggesting that he intended this outcome: by making Ukraine have to rely more on an indigenous arms industry and less on American supplies, Ukraine dramatically reformed its military, became nimble and entrepreneurial, and is now outclassing not just Russia, but most countries in military technology and tactics.
And strategy. Ukraine is becoming a military powerhouse. Not enough to become a superpower, but enough to be formidable.
The frontlines are still, for the most part, stalemated, but that is not where the action is in the war. Instead, the war has moved to the rear, where logistics play out, and onto Russian territory, where Putin's economy and war machine are getting devastated, piece by piece. He is seeing his military factories being destroyed, and his refineries damaged enough to hurt badly.
Moscow's refinery is out of service until 2027, if Ukraine allows it to come back online.
Ukraine's most dramatic shift has been the consistent striking of strategic assets deep inside Russia, and the spectacular attacks on oil and industrial infrastructure in Moscow and St Petersburg, which are both damaging and scary to Russian civilians.
Less dramatic, but at least as important, is Ukraine's strikes on logistics, interdicting materiel headed to the front.
From “I’m not leaving Crimea” to “We’re leaving tomorrow” in just one day
You are now witnessing a remarkably fast process of a Russian woman coming to terms with reality. It took just 24 hours.
She is now packing her bags and preparing to leave with her daughters.
Her husband, however, is still being held back by a boat, a house, and various movable and immovable possessions. Even his wife's requests to “use his brain” have so far had little effect.
“I understand that this could all end very badly. And since, thank God, I still have a choice, I choose to leave,” she explained.
Tourists had been flowing into Crimea until the past couple of weeks, as it is advertised as a paradise. It's where people send their kids to camp, and Russians go to the beach.
The camps are closed, the tourists are fleeing, and even residents are packing up to leave. All the fuel is for the military, and supplies are low.
"Ukraine Can Destroy the Crimean Bridge, but There's a Reason It Hasn't."
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are sending a message to Russian troops.
The Crimean Bridge has not yet been destroyed in order to allow both civilians and Russian military personnel to leave Crimea, avoiding the need to hunt down Russian soldiers in the peninsula's mountains. This was stated by military analyst Kyrylo Sazonov during an appearance on News Factory.
"That's why it hasn't been struck again. Besides, the bridge is already partially disabled after previous attacks. Traffic is restricted, and several limitations are already in place. I believe it has been left standing so they can leave rather than be trapped on the peninsula. Above all, we want civilians to get out instead of remaining there," he said.
According to Sazonov, Ukraine is also interested in allowing Russian troops to withdraw, since tracking them down in Crimea's mountainous terrain could become a long and difficult operation.
"So it's better to let them leave. I think that's exactly why the bridge has been left standing—for now. After all, we are fully capable of destroying it," he added.
It's not that Ukraine is about to invade Crimea. That would be stupid and horrifically bloody. And Putin isn't about to evacuate his military, given that he planted his flag in Crimea over a decade ago, and it would light his own funeral pyre.
History shows that militaries can hold out for YEARS under the most brutal conditions, using very limited supply lines, and grind each other into dust. That is a losing proposition, especially given that Ukraine is taking only one casualty for every 2-3 that Russia does right now.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia's hawks want Putin to go nuclear
The loudest pressure on the Kremlin right now is coming from its own side.
After a month of Ukrainian drones hitting Moscow, St Petersburg, Crimea and an oil refinery inside Moscow itself, the nationalist wing has decided the war is being fought far too softly, and that a U.S. promise to end it on Russia's terms never showed up.
So now the demands are out loud. Full mobilisation, levelling Kyiv's government district, killing Zelensky, bombing the European plants that build Ukraine's drones, and at the far end, reaching for tactical nukes.
The one saying it plainest is Konstantin Malofeyev, a hardline tycoon who bankrolls much of this nationalist scene.
"Why are we not using nuclear weapons, which our forebears developed and stockpiled with the full might of the nation precisely for this purpose?"
For now, the only thing holding all of it back is Putin himself.
Better to slowly strangle Russia and undermine Putin's political position, as he pulls his air defenses back to Moscow and St Petersburg, leaving the front and Crimea even more exposed.
Putin has been blustering about using nuclear weapons for years now, and clearly, his right flank is agitating for something to be done. It's hard to discern whether this is authorized saber-rattling to brush back the European support for Ukraine, or genuine sentiment from his allies.
Putin is doing his own saber-rattling, sending signals by flying nuclear bombers all the way to the UK. But it's hard to believe that Putin would break that taboo. Even Putin doesn't want World War III. And nukes have no tactical value, anyway. You don't take or hold territories by dropping nukes.
We are long since past the time that Russia can claim that any benefits it might get from this war will exceed the massive costs. What is bringing that home, though, is that the costs are no longer being paid in blood far away, or in treasure due to inflation. Now people see the costs directly, as fuel supplies dry up, and refineries and industrial facilities blow up down the street.
Autocrats are invulnerable until the very moment they are not. It's rare that they fall out of power, and extremely dangerous for everybody when they are threatened. This is why Putin has survived this fiasco so far.
But he's costing his allies big time. They are unhappy with how the war is going. They have great lives, but they are kings only in Russia now, as they are pariahs, and Russia is turning sour for everybody. Putin lives in a bunker, rarely coming out, and oligarchs are only held back by very justified fears.
The tension is ramping up. That doesn't mean Putin is doomed, any time soon. But his position is getting ever more precarious.
Wars have rhythms, and it may be that Russia can find some way to turn the tide. But it is hampered by a system that is so corrupt, so incapable of rapid innovation, and so indifferent to the welfare of its soldiers that it's hard to see how.
Striking civilians in Kyiv will not turn the tide. They have been doing that for four years. Something has got to break sometime, and it looks more likely that it will be Russia's resolve than Ukraine's.
For now, Ukraine has the upper hand.
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