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Who will win the Tour de France?
We’re finally at a point to lay our bets.
Key altitude camps have been ticked off.
Tune-up races are done.
All that’s left for Tadej Pogačar and the favorites to do before the grand départ on July 4 is a couple of sharpening workouts, a bit of recon, and taper.
Here’s our yellow jersey form guide and power ranking, based on a magic formula of recent results, team strength, and editorial “sense.”
1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Emirates-XRG), 27
Tadej Pogačar is chasing a record-equaling fifth yellow jersey, and it might be foolish to bet against him pulling it off. (Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP via Getty Images)
11 single-day victories and 2 GC wins in 11 race days
Overall victory at Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie
Victories at Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège
The golden rule of modern cycling? Never bet against Tadej Pogačar.
The Slovenian just plowed through yet another near-perfect season and rates himself fitter than ever. His grip on the WorldTour shows no signs of loosening.
A record-equaling fifth Tour de France title is at his fingertips.
OK, so there are some question marks for the Tour’s two-time defending champion.
Jonas Vingegaard looks better than ever, and Pogačar hasn’t truly been tested in a GC context this year. His opposition in Romandie and Switzerland were – no offense – hardly A-Tier.
And who knows?
Pogi may find himself distracted by the injury of his partner, Urška Žigart. Or the ennui that zapped him in the back half of last year’s race may resurface.
But we’re clutching at straws here.
Don’t bet against Tadej Pogačar, and don’t do it at the 2026 Tour de France.
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), 29
Jonas Vingegaard completed the grand tour sweep at the Giro d’Italia and is now chasing the Giro-Tour double. (Photo: Luca Bettini / AFP via Getty Images)
Overall victory at Paris-Nice, Volta a Catalunya, Giro d’Italia
9 stage wins across the above 3 stage-races
Jonas Vingegaard might be back to his best. Maybe even back to his Tour de France-winning vintage of 2022 and 2023.
He just won the Giro d’Italia without really trying, and completed a season-long stage-racing unbeaten streak while he was at it.
And for the first time in two years, the Dane powers toward the grand départ without the hangover of recent injuries and training disruptions.
It looks like Vingegaard could have cut his gap to Pogačar in 2026.
But, without having seen him square up to his arch-rival since last year’s Tour de France, it’s hard to believe the Dane has eliminated the deficit altogether.
3. Isaac Del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), 22
Isaac del Toro is on a tear of GC and single-stage victories that his idol Pogačar would be proud of. (Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)
Overall victories at UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico, Tour Auvergne-Rhônes-Alpes
5 stage wins across the above 3 stage-races
3rd at Strade Bianche
Isaac del Toro deserves a lot more hype. The Mexican sensation was overshadowed this season by the phenomenal rise of Paul Seixas.
But Del Toro proved this year he’s the real deal. He won every stage-race he finished and blew everybody off his wheel at the Tour de France tune-up race, the Dauphiné.
The only thing holding back Del Toro as he romps into his Tour de France debut?
Tadej Pogačar.
The superdomestique’s fate might be intertwined with that of his Merckxian leader.
If Del Toro doesn’t get stuck serving bottles to King Pog, it’s hard to see anybody coming near him.
The battle for fourth: Florian Lipowitz vs. Paul Seixas
Paul Seixas is one of the most exciting Tour de France debutants in years. (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images))
Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 25
Top-3 overall at Volta a Catalunya, Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie Overall victory at Tour of Slovenia 2 stage wins across the above stage-racesPaul Seixas (Decathlon CMA-CGM), 19
Overall victory at Izulia Basque Country, 2nd at Volta ao Algarve 4 stage wins across the above stage-races Victory at La Flèche Wallonne, 2nd at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-LiègeThe chase for fourth will be a battle between Mr. Unspectacularly Consistent and the most exciting, unproven talent the Tour has seen in years: Florian Lipowitz vs. Paul Seixas.
Lipowitz just doesn’t miss, and he doesn’t have any obvious weakness, either.
After a slow start to the season at the Volta ao Algarve, he hit the podium of every stage-race he started. A dominant victory at the Tour of Slovenia put an exclamation point on it for the German star.
But Lipowitz lacks the magic sparkle Seixas has so much of. He’s never shown a hint of yellow jersey pedigree.
By contrast, the sky might be the limit for Seixas, a French phenom who’s inspired hope in an entire nation.
He showed in skirmishes with Pogačar at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège he’s afraid of nobody. And he’s definitely got the physiology to pull off such youthful swagger.
Seixas has all the tools to win the Tour de France.
But it won’t be this year.
So much can go wrong for him as he shoulders the weight of a nation in not only his first Tour de France, but his first-ever grand tour.
That said, if Seixas can deflect the home hype and race fault-free this summer, he could cause trouble for even his most experienced rivals.
Leading the race for sixth: Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 26
Remco Evenepoel can crush anybody in a one-day race. Can he translate that to the Tour de France? (Photo: Luc Claessen/Getty Images))
Victory and 2 stage wins at the Volta a Valenciana
Victory at Amstel Gold Race
3rd at Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège
Time to address the elephant in the ranking.
Where’s Remco?
On his day, Remco Evenepoel is one of the best in the world. He reasserted that pedigree this year at the Amstel Gold Race.
But the Olympic champion’s GC resume for 2026 says it all.
Victory at Valenciana, a disappointing 10th in the heat and steeps of the UAE Tour, and a typically dramatic 5th at the Volta a Catalunya.
Evenepoel is a stage-racing wildcard that contrasts the steady hand of his teammate Lipowitz.
If Evenepoel fixed his stage-racing faults in his controversial two-month training camp, he could swing for the podium at this Tour de France.
If not? He might finish 6th, 60th, or not even see the finish in Paris.
Chasing a Tour de France top-10
Jorgenson finished top-10 of the last two Tours de France. He’s got the form to do it again. (Photo: Anne-Christine POUJOULAT / AFP via Getty Images)
Lastly, shout-out to the dark horses, outsiders, and superdomestiques who will be in the GC mix.
Here’s the chasing pack, in approximate order of Tour de France potential:
Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar) Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5) Richard Carapaz (EF Education EasyPost Kévin Vauquelin (Netcompany Ineos) Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike) Oscar Onley (Netcompany Ineos)