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It's US Open week and excitement is building for the third Major of the 2026 season.
For many amateur golfers, finding out you have a tee time at the US Open would be a dream come true - but without a genie and a lamp that is unlikely to ever happen for most of us.
Rory McIlroy has already called for caution regarding the US Open setup, which has the potential to be incredibly tough for players, but just how difficult would it be for the average golfer to get around Shinnecock Hills?
This time last year we helped you to understand what your course handicap would be around Oakmont, the 2025 US Open venue, and twelve months on we have the latest data from the USGA to do the same again.
If you have ever wondered what you would shoot at one of these tough US Open courses, and you don't quite have what it takes to qualify in the future, this course handicap data – based on the actual US Open tees – might be the closest you will ever get to finding out!
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The answer, in short, is it depends on your handicap index.
According to the USGA, male golfers with a handicap of 15 or less and female golfers with a handicap of 10 or less have a realistic chance of breaking 100 around Shinnecock Hills.
Male scratch golfers have a target score of 77 around the US Open venue, with a course handicap of 7 on the par 70 course, while a female scratch golfer is given a target score of 84.
Interestingly, the course is a par 78 for female golfers, which means the course handicap for a female scratch golfer is just 6.
This data estimates a target score for both male and female amateur golfers if they were to take on the US Open 2026 test at Shinnecock Hills
(Image credit: Paul Severn)
The USGA explain the calculations behind this, stating:
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"For women it’s a par 78, because in the Course Rating System, there are par guidelines in place for men and women based on the effective playing length of the hole (the measured length adjusted for uphill/downhill, any forced layups, etc.).
"Given the length of Shinnecock’s setup for the U.S. Open, it drives up the par for women."
Male 5-handicap golfers have a target of 84, with a course handicap of 14, while a male 10-handicapper is predicted to come in just shy of breaking 90, with a course handicap of 20 shots.
For female golfers of the same indexes, they are targeted with shooting 91 and 98 respectively, with course handicaps of 13 and 20.
As we move into mid- and high-handicap male golfers, the amount of shots increases by around 6 or 7 each time as we jump up through the handicap bands (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40).
So, a 15-handicapper has a target score of 97, while a 25-handicapper has a target score of 110, and so on.
For female golfers, it's the same pattern. The target scores rise by 6 or 7 shots each time you increase the handicap index by five. A 20-handicap female golfer has a target of 111 whereas a 30-handicapper is around 125.
These are clearly just hypothetical scores based on the handicap index, slope rating and course rating, but they give you a good idea about what you might be expected to produce on the fairways and greens (or bunkers and rough) of Shinnecock Hills.
There are plenty of reasons why many amateurs would struggle to play to their handicap at a US Open venue, but in the absence of a chance to lose all my golf balls trying this data will have to help me predict what could have been.
It's a target score of 103 for me, with a course handicap of 33, if you were wondering. Drop me a comment below with yours (and what you think you would actually shoot).