Peak oil demand arrives sooner than expected
The U.S.-Israeli-Iran war may be remembered for many things, not least the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the reshaping of Middle Eastern geopolitics and the damage done to the global economy. But another consequence is less obvious: The largest oil-supply disruption in modern history has accelerated the arrival of peak oil demand.Four months ago, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a global energy crisis. Oil prices surged, trade flows were disrupted, governments scrambled to shield consumers from rising costs and businesses were forced to adjust to an increasingly uncertain energy landscape. But amid the disruption, another trend emerged as countries began adapting to life with less oil. What began as a supply shock increasingly became a demand story, forcing the energy sector to reconsider one of its most important assumptions: the continued growth of global oil demand.Before the war, the International Energy Agency projected that oil demand would “rise by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade.” The debate was not whether demand would continue growing, but how quickly growth would slow.
