Burnham storm clouds gather as Starmer support crumbles
Sir Keir Starmer’s grip on Labour has suffered a fresh blow after new polling revealed party members would back a string of senior rivals over the Prime Minister in a leadership contest.
The survey of Labour members by Survation for LabourList lays bare the scale of unrest now swirling around the party after disastrous local election results plunged the Government into open crisis.
While Sir Keir would comfortably defeat Health Secretary Wes Streeting in a straight leadership contest, he would lose to several bigger Labour figures — including Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband.
The findings are likely to intensify speculation about Sir Keir’s long-term future as Labour MPs continue privately discussing potential successors amid mounting panic over the rise of Nigel Farage and the collapse of Labour support in traditional heartlands.
According to the poll, Sir Keir would beat Wes Streeting by 53 per cent to 23 per cent among Labour members.
But the Prime Minister would be heavily defeated by Andy Burnham, who secured 61 per cent support compared with Sir Keir’s 28 per cent.
The figures will send shockwaves through Westminster, given the growing perception inside Labour that the Greater Manchester mayor increasingly represents a more electorally viable future direction for the party.
Despite not currently sitting in Parliament, Andy Burnham has emerged as a focal point for Labour figures frustrated by the Government’s struggles since it entered office.
Sir Keir would also lose narrowly against Angela Rayner, who led him by 45 per cent to 41 per cent, while Ed Miliband defeated the Prime Minister 46 per cent to 39 per cent.
Only Armed Forces Minister Al Carns performed significantly worse than Sir Keir, trailing by 45 per cent to 17 per cent.
The poll comes amid deepening fears inside Labour that the party is drifting towards a full-scale civil war after catastrophic local election losses saw Reform UK make sweeping gains across England and Wales.
Behind closed doors, MPs have increasingly questioned whether Sir Keir can recover politically before the next general election, with several senior figures now openly manoeuvring for position.
The Prime Minister has spent recent days attempting to stabilise his authority after reports emerged of leadership plotting involving allies of Wes Streeting and growing unrest among Labour backbenchers.
Almost 100 Labour MPs are understood to have privately expressed concerns over the party’s direction following the elections, which saw Labour lose more than 1,400 councillors and suffer humiliating defeats in former strongholds.
The growing strength of Nigel Farage has further intensified panic inside Government ranks, with Labour strategists increasingly concerned that working-class voters are abandoning the party in large numbers.
That anxiety has fuelled speculation around alternative leadership candidates capable of reconnecting with disillusioned voters outside London.
Andy Burnham in particular has cultivated an image as a more traditional Labour figure rooted in northern working-class politics, while Angela Rayner continues to retain strong grassroots support among many activists and trade union members.
Meanwhile, Ed Miliband’s strong showing will raise eyebrows given his previous defeat at the 2015 general election and long-standing association with Labour’s Left.
The polling also underlines the increasingly fragile position of Keir Starmer despite his landslide election victory less than two years ago.
For now, there is no formal leadership contest underway.
Any challenger would require nominations from 81 Labour MPs to trigger a contest — a substantial threshold designed to prevent frivolous bids.
But as Labour’s internal tensions deepen and rival camps position themselves for a possible post-Starmer future, the survey offers perhaps the clearest sign yet that many party members are already imagining exactly what comes next.
