Inklings #009 📧
Wrapping up my trifecta of podcast appearances in the past week...CapEx, Clauses, & ComputeA podcast about the 3 ‘Cs’ of our current age…
Inklings is a newsletter featuring links and commentary from M.G. Siegler on timely topics found around the web.
Thoughts On...💰 Microsoft's Defensive Early OpenAI Dealings – Leading up to Satya Nadella taking the stand this week at the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI trial, this is a fun read looking back to the time of the initial interactions between Microsoft and OpenAI (which is why they're roped into this trial). Notably, about 18 months before their first massive investment (there was just a cloud credit deal at that point), basically the entire executive team at Microsoft seemed super skeptical of OpenAI's prospects and was far more interested in ensuring they didn't "storm off to Amazon in a huff and shit-talk us and Azure on the way out," as CTO Kevin Scott put it in one email. Nadella kept seeking feedback about a deeper partnership and everyone either seemed to think they could do this all themselves (typical big company talk) or really just seemed worried it would be a boondoggle at best and money pit at worst – but again, noted the PR value of a partnership and at the very least, ensuring Amazon didn't get the same. Not exactly inspiring insight about the future of AI and more just cynical business dealings. To be fair, it was undoubtedly hard to see where AI would go from there, and certainly how fast it would evolve. And yes, the OpenAI deal did end up as a huge money pit – but ultimately one that has given Microsoft billions in returns, at least on paper... [Wired]🤝 Apple & Intel Have a Deal... For Something – While the two sides reportedly have a "preliminary agreement" for Intel to manufacture some chips – as previously discussed – it's still not clear what those chips are and when they might be ready. Still, that hasn't slowed Intel's continued stock surge, as they're not only well past their all-time highs now, they're also a $630B company now, breaking into the Top 20 most valuable companies in the world, just ahead of ASML and catching up with bitter rival AMD, fast. The report gives a lot of credit to the Trump administration and the President in particular for making this happen with Tim Cook directly – which, of course, has hugely boosted the government's 10% stake in Intel. And NVIDIA's. And SoftBank's. Really, shouldn't Apple have one too? What a wild world we live in. A year ago, approaching a market cap of $100B from the wrong way, everyone was writing off Intel as dead. (Well, not everyone...) [WSJ 🔒]📚 The Barnes & Noble Comeback – I've been tracking this for a while, mainly because I'm a big fan of James Daunt, both because of the small bookstores in London that bear his name, but also what he's done with Waterstones. Basically, he took a tired chain and made it more like his own stores. And now he has done the same again with B&N. To the point where Elliot is setting up the packaged companies to go public in London. Yes, bookstore chains owned by a hedge fund. It's clearly all Daunt and this piece delves into why: while the store personalization aspect is key, it's the behind-the-scenes logistics that makes the business now sing. Daunt's inventory management reads a lot like Tim Cook's at Apple – and I swear I'm not just saying that as the two look similar and are nearly the same age. By shrinking the stores and the number of books ordered, he's been able to compete with Amazon and get back to growth. By year-end, B&N should have 740 stores – more than they had in 2019, which is pretty incredible. [WSJ 🔒]🤨 RIP "The Mouth of the South" – While the NYT obit of Ted Turner is a bit more robust at 4k words, it seems fitting to link to the CNN one, which has a smoother story arc. It's a wild one. From taking over his father's struggling billboard business (after he committed suicide) to becoming the largest land owner in the US (at the time of his death last week at age 87, he had fallen to fourth). As he himself noted, CNN was the ultimate crown jewel of his legacy as it completely changed media, ushering in the 24/7 news cycle, but there was so much else too. The Atlanta Braves (and putting them on the map by putting them on his networks around the country for all 162 games), TBS, TNT, TCM, the Cartoon Network, buying MGM, merging with Time Warner (then merging that with AOL – yikes), winning the America's Cup, donating $1B to the UN (which took a long time to pay due in part to the disastrous AOL merger dragging down his net worth), Captain Planet (!), Jane Fonda (which the CNN piece goes deeper on), etc. Highly controversial and problematic at points, but seemingly calmer as he aged. His dealing with debt and hugely risky business moves have echoes in our current times with people like Masa Son and even the Paramount/Warner Bros deal. But yeah, talk about right place/right time when the Gulf War broke out... [CNN]I Quote..."I hope that 80-times growth doesn’t continue because that’s just crazy and it’s too hard to handle. I’m hoping for some more normal numbers."– Dario Amodei, speaking at Anthropic's developer conference about the recent growth they're seeing, and explaining why they needed to write the SpaceX deal (as well as a range of others), fast.Asides...macOS 27 will seemingly be less Liquid Glassy, a de-facto admission that the design was meant more for iOS and sort of half-baked for desktops. [Bloomberg 🔒]Big Bowling? A lawsuit accuses Lucky Strike of monopolistic control over the industry. Didn't realize the control of PBA and Brunswick (a name I don't think I've thought about since I was maybe 12). [NYT]Aside from Christmas NFL specials, Netflix landed this year's opening game between the Rams and 49ers (live from... Australia?!) as their sports expansion continues... [Athletic 🔒]Still, Amazon seems better positioned thanks to the massive advertising business they've quickly built around Prime Video and year-round sports rights. They're teeing up the John Madden biopic (which I still can't believe is real) as their big Thanksgiving football moment (they have the Black Friday game). [THR]Dua Lipa is suing Samsung over using not just her likeness, but her own copyrighted photograph, on their packaging for TVs. I mean, what? This is not going to help the struggling television division (thank god for chips)! [THR]
Below, members of The Inner Ring will find thoughts on:• Elon Musk's 'Colossus' Strategy• OpenAI's Next Microsoft Fight• Berkshire's Cash Pile
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