Iraq is caught in the middle between the U.S. and Iran
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Iraq is navigating a precarious geopolitical landscape as the conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies, threatening the nation’s security, its primary revenue source, and its fragile political stability. High-ranking U.S. officials have revealed a staggering increase in hostilities, with American facilities in Iraq enduring over 600 attacks involving missiles and drones since the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. war.
The targets of these sustained assaults include the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, the U.S. Diplomatic Support Center, and the U.S. Consulate in Erbil. Washington has heightened its rhetoric, demanding “actions, not words” from the Iraqi leadership. A senior State Department official emphasized that the line between the Iraqi state and pro-Iranian militias has become dangerously blurred.
Security Under Siege: The U.S. Ultimatum
The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has issued a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory, the highest possible warning, urging all American citizens to leave Iraq immediately. The embassy cited ongoing threats from “terrorist militias” allied with Iran, which continue to plan attacks throughout the country, including the Kurdistan region.
U.S. officials are pressing Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi to take concrete steps to restore confidence, including expelling militias from state institutions, while severing all financial support from the national budget, and halting the payment of salaries to militia fighters.
US President Donald Trump has voiced support for Zaidi, but said he wanted to see a new Iraqi government “free of terrorism.”
When President George W. Bush ordered the attack, invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, he had the goal of regime change. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was a Sunni, governing a Shiite majority with an iron fist.
The political goal, was to place a hand-picked new government by America in Iraq. The experts at the U.S. State Department wanted a Shiite dominated government for Iraq, and they got it. Apparently, the big-minds at the State Department, sometimes called the “Deep State”, didn’t think far enough into the project to realize that Iran and Iraq both have a Shiite majority, and by instituting a Shiite government in Iraq, Iran would be stronger both militarily as well as politically.
Iraq during the ISIS occupation and defeat
After ISIS occupied territory in Iraq, the U.S. military formed a broad coalition to fight, and eventually defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Besides the U.S. and American allies, Russia, Iran and Syria had military units focused on fighting ISIS.
Iraq used their military to fight ISIS, but several Iraqi paramilitary groups, supported by Iran, fought alongside the Western and regional armies to defeat ISIS. The paramilitary groups in Iraq became officially recognized by the Iraqi central government in Baghdad, and were placed under the umbrella of the Iraqi state military.
The U.S. has fought those Iraqi militias, which they view as a type of “Hezbollah” or “Hamas” in Iraq. In fact, the U.S. has attacked and killed members of the militias inside Iraq.
Just as Israel is attempting to rid Lebanon from Hezbollah, Trump expects Zaidi to rid Iraq of the Iranian supported militias. Lebanon is 30% Shiite, and the majority of the Lebanese Army are Shiite. Experts view the situation as the first steps toward civil war in Lebanon. It is not yet clear if Iraq is headed for a similar meltdown.
On January 27, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Iraq if they appointed former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to head the government. Bowing to pressure, Ali Al-Zaidi has been Iraq’s prime minister-designate since April 27.
On May 1, Zaidi received a direct call from Trump, the first time in modern Iraqi political history, and was invited to visit the White House. The U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth has also called Zaidi.
Economic Paralysis: The Strait of Hormuz and Oil Discounts
The conflict has dealt a severe blow to Iraq’s oil-dependent economy. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies, remains largely closed, strangling Iraq’s maritime exports. According to Bloomberg and Reuters, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has been forced to offer unprecedented discounts to attract buyers. Crude oil in Iraq has been offered for sale up to $30.00 per barrel below the market price.
Despite these steep discounts, the risks remain prohibitive. Data from Bloomberg reveal that only two tankers successfully loaded at the Port of Basra in April, a sharp decline from the typical monthly average of approximately 80 vessels. With storage facilities reaching full capacity, Iraq was among the first OPEC producers to slash production at the onset of the crisis.
The Al-Zaidi Government: A High-Stakes Mediatory Role
Against this backdrop of military and economic pressure, Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi is attempting to position Iraq as a neutral mediator. In a congratulatory call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, al-Zaidi affirmed Iraq’s capacity to bridge the gap between Tehran and Washington.
However, al-Zaidi, the youngest Prime Minister in Iraq’s history, faces a minefield of domestic and international obligations.
Iraqi militias, close to Iran, are insisting on the total withdrawal of American military.
The Sunni minority are demanding the resolution of the displaced persons file.
Washington is using financial pressure on Baghdad to curb the illegal arms flow and militia influence.
On May 4, the U.S. began operations to escort “neutral” vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, an action Tehran condemned as a violation of the April 8 ceasefire.
A Fragile Truce in Jeopardy
The situation remains volatile. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted “progress” in negotiations mediated by Pakistan, he simultaneously warned the U.S. against being “dragged into chaos” by bad actors, obviously referring to Israel.
Meanwhile, the military theater continues to simmer. U.S. Central Command recently reported intercepting Iranian drones, missiles, and fast-attack craft during the transit of U.S.-flagged vessels. President Donald Trump also claimed the destruction of seven Iranian vessels during recent skirmishes.
As the siege of Iranian ports continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, Iraq stands at a crossroads. Prime Minister al-Zaidi’s ability to balance these competing interests will determine whether Iraq can serve as a regional stabilizer, or if it will be pulled further into the vortex of a widening regional war.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of this site. This site does not give financial, investment or medical advice.
