Pat Leahy: Deepfake Simon Harris is only the start of the Government’s AI problem
Addressing a conference on financial crime this week, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris revealed he had been a victim of internet “deep fakes” – entirely fabricated but highly realistic videos made with artificial intelligence – used to advertise fraudulent investment products online.The deepfake of him, he joked, was so realistic that “I had to watch it twice to check it wasn’t me”.I regret to say there was some sniggering at this around Leinster House. Given his ubiquitous media profile, it was entirely possible Harris might have said something about investments and then forgotten about it, insiders joked. One suggested this might be about the State savings scheme he flagged earlier this year. Another imagined a conversation between Harris and his advisers: “Did I actually say that? Can someone check?” Lols all round. Though as is often the case in political banter there was a bit of an edge to it too – relations between the two big parties in Government not being always (or actually ever) as harmonious as they pretend. Nor was all this confined to Fianna Fáil either. Anyway, I digress.READ MOREHow weight-loss drugs are reshaping modern life: ‘I’m paying €250 a month not to eat’ MacSharry defends intervention in case of developer jailed for assault on three boysKate O’Connor on her gruelling seven-event sport: ‘It’s so tough on a woman’s body’Kinahan cartel member Sean McGovern apologises to victims, seeks reduced prison sentenceSuffice to say that purported financial fraud by the Minister for Finance is not the greatest challenge the Government will face from artificial intelligence in coming years.[ Job losses and AI: Could technology bring Ireland back to the dark days of 2008?Opens in new window ]Depending on your appetite for hype or scepticism, AI is either the most significant technological advance in the history of mankind, which will fundamentally change the way our societies and our lives work, or the greatest bubble we’ve ever seen. My guess is that it will be somewhere between the two. But what we do know is that it will bring significant changes in the world of work, that those changes are already happening, and they will soon present very considerable political and governmental challenges.A few straws in the wind this week: Covalen, a company based in Dublin that employs 2,000 people and provides services to tech giant Meta, said it would lay off 700 people. It has already cut 300 jobs this year. [ Tech sector job losses - this time it is differentOpens in new window ]The announcement came days after Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp, signalled it would cut 10,000 jobs worldwide due to changes brought about by AI. Staff at the company’s Dublin offices are waiting to hear of their fate.All the tech companies are doing it, even as they channel hundreds of billions of dollars into investment in AI and the data centres needed to power it. Amazon cut 16,000 jobs last year and is in the process of dumping another 14,000. Microsoft cut 15,000 last year. And so on, and so on. One online tracker of tech layoffs puts the numbers at more than 165,000. And this is only getting started.In Ireland, these are high-paying jobs in the multinational sector. The massive amounts of corporation tax paid by the tech companies here has been endlessly discussed. People pay less attention to the amount of income tax that workers in multinationals pay. But it’s also massive. Ireland, remember, has a highly – perhaps dangerously – progressive income tax system where the top 10 per cent of earners pay two-thirds of all income tax. Many of that top 10 per cent are employees of multinationals. An Irish Times analysis of accounts filed in Dublin by several tech giants last year showed that their staff in Ireland were paid an average of €155,000 and that doesn’t include share bonuses (or the famous free food in the office canteen). It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happens to the public finances if there’s a sudden contraction in employment in the sector.But the tech job losses may only be the start. White-collar jobs will be next. Companies will use AI to do the work that is currently being done by expensively educated graduates. It’s estimated that two-thirds of Irish jobs are “highly exposed” to developments in AI. Dario Amodei, the founder of Anthropic, one of the biggest AI firms, has predicted that within a few years we will lose 50 per cent of all entry-level white-collar jobs. That is an economic and social earthquake.This issue is quickly beginning to occupy some mental space in Government. Last weekend, Taoiseach Micheál Martin warned of “significant upheaval” in the jobs market. A lengthy report by the National Economic and Social Council this week outlined what the State’s approach should be.Fianna Fáil backbencher Naoise Ó Cearúil has produced plans for a pilot scheme to help workers with the transition to AI.And Malcolm Byrne’s Oireachtas Committee on Artificial Intelligence has been quietly but effectively going about its work since last year. Fianna Fáil TD Byrne knows more about the subject than nearly anyone else in politics.He’s not apocalyptic, saying that while AI will displace some jobs, it will also create lots more. “AI won’t replace lawyers,” he says. “But lawyers who use AI will replace lawyers who don’t.” Sounds right. Mind you, a lawyer friend who recently used AI for research on a legal point was duly provided with several completely fictitious cases and precedents.There are many other associated hopes and fears about AI: that we are on the verge of independent superintelligence which could either solve all our human problems or decide to wipe us all out. Actually, my fear is that by eliminating the need to learn anything, AI will actually just make us all stupider. In which case, I suppose, it would look superintelligent by comparison. Whatever about all that – and usually neither the direst warnings nor the most optimistic hopes about new technologies come true – AI will present huge challenges for Government and politics in the immediate future. Now, can I interest you in an investment scheme? Simon Harris recommends it highly…
