IMARC Group, a leading global market research and management consulting firm, has published its latest market intelligence report on the online grocery market. The global online grocery market size reached USD 909.6 Billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 7,644.8 Billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 25.88% during 2026-2034, a pace of expansion well ahead of most food and retail categories. Growth is driven by lasting digital shopping habits, 10 to 15 minute quick commerce delivery, rising smartphone penetration and the spread of subscription-based grocery programs.
The market is gaining momentum as grocery shifts from an occasional online purchase to a weekly routine. Retailers are converting stores into fulfilment hubs, building dark store networks and extending same-day delivery to fresh and perishable items. Marketplaces are adding AI shopping assistants to cut basket-building time. Households in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, which account for an estimated 50 to 60% of total grocery spending but remain underpenetrated online, are the next major demand pool.
Online Grocery Market at a Glance
- Market Size (2025): USD 909.6 Billion
- Market Outlook: USD 7,644.8 Billion
- Growth Rate 2026-2034: CAGR of 25.88%
- Largest Business Model: Pure marketplace, with 46.8% share
- Largest Purchase Type: Subscription, with 58.0% share
- Dominant Region: Asia Pacific, with 58.3% share
- Key Players: Amazon, Walmart, JD.com, Instacart and Zepto
How AI is Reshaping the Future of the Online Grocery Market
- Agentic Shopping Assistants: In September 2026, Instacart and Shipt unveiled AI shopping assistants on their marketplaces. Instacart’s assistant is called Clementine, and the company’s CEO said such agents will remove friction and speed up online grocery adoption. Albertsons has introduced an AI assistant aimed at cutting average online grocery shopping time from 46 minutes to 4 minutes, and Schnucks began rolling out an agentic assistant in summer 2026.
- AI Adoption Across Grocery Retail: An FMI poll found that more than two-thirds of food retailers now use AI, up from 47% a year earlier. Instacart launched Instacart AI Solutions in November 2025 so grocers can deploy AI tools across their own digital storefronts.
- Predictive Replenishment and Cost Control: Cold chain delivery adds an estimated USD 2 to 5 per order, and picking, packing and last-mile costs can reach 20 to 35% of order value. AI-predicted replenishment automates routine restocking for subscription households and helps operators plan dark store inventory against these cost pressures.
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Online Grocery Market Trends and Drivers
Convenience has turned online grocery into a weekly habit. Online channels reached 19% of US grocery spending in December 2025, and 61% of US households bought groceries online by the end of 2025. Quick commerce is accelerating this shift. In August 2026, India’s quick commerce platforms crossed 9 million daily orders, led by Blinkit at roughly 3.4 to 3.6 million, Zepto at 2.4 to 2.6 million and Swiggy Instamart at 1.3 to 1.45 million. Smartphones underpin the model, since 82% of people aged 10 and above own a mobile phone globally.
Retailers are also using their store networks to compete on speed. Walmart US eCommerce sales rose 24% in the quarter ended July 2026, led by store-fulfilled delivery, advertising and marketplace sales. Amazon extended same-day delivery of fresh groceries to more than 1,000 US cities and towns in August 2025, targeting more than 2,300 locations by year-end. Non-Prime shoppers pay a flat USD 12.99 per order, and Prime members get free delivery on orders over USD 25 in most cities. Amazon has also said it will invest more than USD 4 Billion to triple its delivery network.
Regulation is catching up with the model. Dark store hygiene, packaging waste and cold chain compliance are now central to how platforms scale. Delivered food margins of 18 to 25% are often offset by fulfilment costs, so operators that combine subscriptions, advertising income and dense dark store networks hold the stronger position.
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Key Government Schemes and Regulatory Programs Shaping the Industry
- India, PLI Scheme for Food Processing Industry (PLISFPI): The scheme carries an outlay of Rs 10,900 crore. Per PIB data, it has approved 171 companies and disbursed Rs 1,155.3 crore in incentives. Beneficiaries have invested Rs 8,910 crore across 213 locations, and the scheme has generated over 2.89 lakh jobs. This strengthens the packaged and processed food supply that online grocers sell.
- India, FSSAI Action on E-commerce Food Platforms: In July 2025, FSSAI met more than 70 e-commerce platforms and directed them to display FSSAI license numbers on invoices, list warehouses on the FoSCoS portal and ensure FoSTaC hygiene training for food handlers. Maharashtra now requires state approval before new dark stores open and has committed to biannual dark store inspections.
- European Union, Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR): The regulation became applicable on 12 August 2026. It caps empty space in e-commerce parcels at 40% unless technically unavoidable, and non-EU sellers must appoint an authorized EU representative. Online sellers must offer a reusable shipping option at checkout from 2030, and recycled content thresholds of 30 to 65% apply to plastic packaging.
Online Grocery Market Industry Segmentation
The report has segmented the market into the following categories:
Breakup By Product Type:
- Vegetables and Fruits
- Dairy Products
- Staples and Cooking Essentials
- Snacks
- Meat and Seafood
- Others
Breakup By Business Model:
- Pure Marketplace
- Hybrid Marketplace
- Others
Pure marketplace accounts for the largest share at 46.8%, followed by hybrid marketplace at 34.2%. The pure marketplace model is also the fastest growing, because aggregators can scale selection and delivery coverage without owning inventory or stores.
Breakup By Platform:
- App-based
- Web-based
Breakup By Purchase Type:
- One-time
- Subscription
Subscription leads with a 58.0% share. Recurring orders for staples and dairy give platforms predictable demand and lower churn.
Breakup By Region:
- Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia)
- Europe (Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia)
- North America (United States, Canada)
- Latin America (Brazil, Mexico)
- Middle East and Africa
Asia Pacific dominates with a 58.3% share, followed by North America at 16.7%, Europe at 13.5%, Latin America at 6.4% and the Middle East and Africa at 5.1%. Dense urban populations, mobile-first consumers and quick commerce networks in China and India drive the region’s lead.
Competitive Landscape
The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the competitive landscape in the online grocery market, with detailed profiles of major companies, including:
- Amazon.com, Inc.
- JD.com, Inc.
- Walmart
- Instacart
- Zepto Marketplace Private Limited
Competition now centres on delivery speed and store density. Walmart’s US net sales reached USD 125.2 Billion in its latest fiscal quarter, with eCommerce adding about 5.1 percentage points to comparable sales. Zepto operated about 1,150 dark stores as of April 2026 and has raised over USD 2.3 Billion in total funding. Amazon is meanwhile building dark stores in India to raise order density, and Amazon Now handles roughly 600,000 to 700,000 daily orders there.
Market Concentration Analysis
- United States: Amazon Fresh, Walmart Grocery and Instacart together hold about 75 to 80% of online grocery GMV, which makes the market highly concentrated.
- China: China accounts for roughly 45 to 50% of the global online grocery market. JD.com and other regional players hold about 70 to 75% of China’s online grocery share.
- India: Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart handle roughly 7.1 to 7.7 million of the more than 9 million daily quick commerce orders. Flipkart Minutes, Amazon Now and BigBasket are building share through new dark stores.
What Does The Full Report Cover?
If you are tracking the online grocery market for investment decisions, market entry planning, competitive benchmarking or strategic advisory, IMARC Group’s report gives you everything in one place:
- Complete market sizing with revenue outlook across the forecast period
- Quantified analysis of drivers, restraints and opportunities, including quick commerce, subscriptions and AI-led personalization
- Sub-segment breakdowns by product type, business model, platform and purchase type, with individual share data
- Country-level analysis covering the United States, Canada, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico
- Competitive profiles of leading companies with strategic landscape assessment
- Porter’s Five Forces, value chain analysis and pricing intelligence
- Latest developments in dark store operations, cold chain logistics and AI-led grocery shopping
Recent News and Developments in Online Grocery Market
- September 2026: Instacart and Shipt unveiled AI shopping assistants on their marketplaces, and Instacart’s CEO said agents like Clementine will speed up online grocery adoption. An FMI poll found more than two-thirds of food retailers now use AI, up from 47% a year earlier.
- August 2026: India’s quick commerce platforms crossed 9 million daily orders. Blinkit handles 3.4 to 3.6 million, Zepto 2.4 to 2.6 million, Swiggy Instamart 1.3 to 1.45 million, Flipkart Minutes 0.9 to 1 million, Amazon Now 0.6 to 0.7 million and BigBasket about 0.5 to 0.6 million.
- August 2026: Walmart reported 24% growth in US eCommerce sales and 26% growth at Sam’s Club eCommerce for the quarter ended July. Walmart US eCommerce contributed about 5.1 percentage points to comparable sales, up from about 4.2 points a year earlier.
- April 2026: Zepto secured SEBI approval for an IPO of about USD 1.2 to 1.3 Billion. The company operated about 1,150 dark stores and had raised USD 450 Million in 2025 at a valuation of around USD 7 Billion.
- March 2026: Amazon launched Amazon Now in Brazil on 3 March, starting in São Paulo with 15 minute grocery delivery. The service was extended to seven more cities by 9 March through a partnership with Rappi, with a delivery fee of 5.49 reais for non-Prime customers.
- August 2025: Amazon expanded same-day delivery of perishable groceries to more than 1,000 US cities and towns, targeting more than 2,300 locations by year-end. It has said it will invest more than USD 4 Billion to triple its delivery network.
Note: If you require specific details, data, or insights that are not currently included in the scope of this report, we are happy to accommodate your request. As part of our customization service, we will gather and provide the additional information you need, tailored to your specific requirements. Please let us know your exact needs, and we will ensure the report is updated accordingly to meet your expectations.
Key Questions This Report Answers
- What is the current global online grocery market size and what is its projected value?
- Which business model and purchase type hold the largest share in the global online grocery market?
- What are the key drivers of online grocery market growth?
- Which region dominates the global online grocery market and why?
- How are quick commerce, subscriptions and AI shopping assistants reshaping competitive strategies?
- Who are the top companies in the global online grocery market and what are their competitive strategies?
- What are the investment and market entry opportunities across tier-2 and tier-3 cities, dark store networks and cold chain logistics?
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