Reddit Weekly Hot Stock Watch: RKLB/LUNR/ASTS Decline—Is the Space Sector Still Worth It?
Author: David, Shenchao TechFlowIn Reddit’s stock subreddits, stocks with surging discussion热度 may not necessarily be worth buying, but they are certainly being watched, as the discussions are often driven by underlying catalysts.Our monitoring tools scan daily discussion volume and sentiment distribution across multiple major stock communities on Reddit, identifying anomalous signals for further analysis.Last week's heated signals were concentrated on the space sector:SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ranked first on the热度 chart with 2,828 discussions in the past 24 hours; RKLB (Rocket Lab) saw a 3.3-fold increase in discussions, while LUNR (Intuitive Machines) and ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) also frequently appeared in the trending discussions.These four stocks are frequently grouped together on Reddit because they are among the few pure-play space stocks available to retail investors. With SpaceX still private, these stocks serve as retail investors' alternatives for gaining exposure to the "space theme."Currently, a common discussion on the Reddit U.S. stocks community is, “Which companies am I missing from my space-themed investments?” This reflects, to some extent, the spillover sentiment from SpaceX and the expectation among retail investors abroad that it will ignite interest in the space sector, prompting them to position themselves early.Based on the current price movements of several stocks, companies within the same sector are moving in completely opposite directions: SPCE surged 22% in a single day, while RKLB fell 15%, LUNR dropped 13%, and ASTS declined 7%.Thus, in the current discussions, SPCE has attracted new attention due to its profit potential, while RKLB/LUNR/ASTS are being discussed by existing holders driven by anxiety over price declines or losses.If you're also following the space sector or hold positions in it, the following analysis of recent trends for these four U.S. stocks may help inform your decisions.Space stocks mostly declined due to the combined impact of negative events.Besides $SPCE, this downturn in space stocks was triggered by at least three negative events occurring in the same week.Blue Origin rocket exploded.Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s space company and founder of Amazon, has a heavy-lift launch vehicle called New Glenn, which competes in the same market as SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and Rocket Lab’s upcoming Neutron. On May 29, during a static fire test at Cape Canaveral, New Glenn exploded, prompting the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration, which must approve all commercial launches) to immediately ground the vehicle.This event has the greatest impact on $ASTS:The company plans to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of the year, with Blue Origin as one of the primary launch providers; the grounding has directly eliminated one launch channel.$RKLB itself is not launched by New Glenn, but its in-house developed Neutron is a competitor; the explosion reminded investors that rocket manufacturing truly carries risks. Another space stock, $LUNR, was affected, more due to sector-wide sentiment.But $SPCE actually benefited. Virgin Galactic operates in suborbital space tourism, directly competing with Blue Origin’s New Shepard. After the New Glenn explosion, market capital flowed out of Blue Origin-related stocks and一部分 flowed into SPCE. Additionally, SPCE has a relatively smaller market cap, making its price more susceptible to sharp fluctuations.SpaceX could price its IPO as early as June 11.SpaceX's S-1 filing was submitted confidentially in April, with a target valuation of $1.8 trillion and a potential fundraising amount of up to $75 billion, possibly becoming the largest IPO in Wall Street history. Over the past few years, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS have been popular, partly because SpaceX remained private, making them the only accessible space investments for retail investors. Now that the main event is imminent, some capital will naturally shift from these alternatives to make room for SpaceX.Insiders are selling themselves.Public data shows that RKLB’s CEO, Peter Beck, sold approximately 2.51 million shares over the past six months, cashing out around $142 million. The President, COO, and General Counsel also recently reduced their holdings, collectively amounting to approximately $18 million.Some of the sales were part of pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans (a pre-set trading arrangement for CEO-compliant share reductions), but the timing coincided with historical highs. Over the past year, RKLB rose 412%, ASTS rose 437%, and LUNR rose 267%, meaning profit-taking positions were already relatively loose.Four "space companies" are not doing the same thing.Retail investors often trade SPCE, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS as if they belong to the same sector, but these four companies differ significantly in their business models, revenue stages, and risk profiles.As shown in the table above, RKLB is the only one among the four with actual revenue that is accelerating in growth.Looking at the first-quarter revenues of several companies, RKLB’s revenue was generated organically through individual transactions, rising 63.5% year-over-year and exceeding analyst expectations. While LUNR’s numbers are roughly similar, the majority of its growth stems from the $800 million acquisition of Lanteris this year, whose revenue was included in the figures. Excluding this, LUNR’s organic growth was much more modest, and its final revenue still fell 9% short of analyst expectations.ASTS and SPCE show nearly no bars on this chart; their revenue scale is negligible compared to the first two.RKLB: The only one among several with accelerating fundamentals, but $122 is no longer cheap.Rocket Lab is the second-largest rocket company in the United States. Its proprietary Electron small rocket has completed over 50 launches, and the company also manufactures satellite platforms and aerospace components sold to NASA, the Department of Defense, and commercial customers. Government and commercial revenues each account for half of its income, resulting in a much more diversified customer base than the other three.The Neutron medium-lift rocket currently under development by the company is the biggest variable. Positioned as a direct competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, a successful maiden flight would elevate RKLB from a “small launch provider” to the “only publicly traded company capable of launching medium payloads outside of SpaceX.” The target for the first flight is Q4 2026, but the schedule has already been delayed twice—most recently due to a failure in the first-stage tank testing. This means the potential valuation range differs significantly depending on success or failure.The Q1 financial figures for this company are shown in the chart below. Here are three additional points not visible in the chart:First, among the $2.2 billion in backlog, an $816 million satellite contract with the Space Development Agency (SDA) represents Rocket Lab’s largest single order to date, demonstrating the company’s transition from a launch service provider to a full-stack space solutions provider.Second, five exclusive Neutron launch contracts were signed in Q1, with customers placing orders even before the rocket has flown, indicating growing market confidence in Neutron.Third, CEO Peter Beck cashed out $142 million over the past six months; although this was part of a 10b5-1 plan, the scale of this减持 is significant in the aerospace industry.In terms of valuation, the company’s forward P/S ratio is around 80x. This multiple assumes three key factors: Neutron’s success, sustained growth in defense orders, and continued gross margin expansion. If any one of these assumptions fails to materialize, the valuation may become unsustainable.Overall, the current price of $122 has already priced in most of the good news; if the price returns to the $96–$102 range (near the 50-day moving average), the risk-reward ratio becomes significantly more favorable.Market sentiment: Bullish, but consider waiting for a better price. Key catalysts are the Q4 Neutron launch progress and the Q2 earnings report on August 6.The other three: Need more catalysts; be cautious of short squeezes.Let’s pull together the key financial metrics for these four popular space stocks for a clearer comparison:LUNR: $187 million in revenue tripled, but mostly acquiredIntuitive Machines is a core contractor for NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program, delivering equipment to the lunar surface. While the Q1 revenue tripled, the primary driver was the $800 million acquisition and consolidation of Lanteris; the organic growth rate is far from the impressive 199% figure suggested.On the other hand, revenue missed expectations by 9%, and EPS was four times worse than expected.The IM-3 lunar landing mission in the second half of the year is a critical milestone. Previously, the IM-1 lander tipped over, and the IM-2 lander touched down but with limited communication. If IM-3 achieves a successful soft landing at the lunar south pole, NASA’s subsequent contracts are secured; if it fails, the entire narrative is undermined.A forward P/S of 6.4x appears cheapest, but the gross margin is only 19%—a low P/S does not equate to undervaluation. The analyst target price is $40.78, and the current price of $38.21 is already very close.Trend assessment: Neutral to slightly bearish; wait for the IM-3 results.ASTS: The biggest story, but Blue Origin's grounding directly disrupted the script.AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network that enables ordinary smartphones to connect directly to satellites without modification. The potential market includes 4 billion people worldwide without cellular coverage, and partnerships have been signed with AT&T and Verizon, along with regulatory approval from the FCC.The story framework is fine; the issue may lie in the execution timeline. To achieve meaningful coverage, 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites must be launched by the end of the year, but two accidents involving Blue Origin have directly eliminated one launch lane.Satellite analyst Tim Farrar warned that only 3 to 5 actual Falcon 9 launches will be possible this year. Deutsche Bank has downgraded its rating to Hold, with an average analyst target price of $82.24, which is 22% lower than the current price.Holding $3.5 billion in cash, the company is not short on funds in the short term, but its forward P/S ratio of 177x assumes that all satellites will launch on schedule.Trend assessment: High risk—wait until Blue Origin’s relaunch schedule is confirmed before considering.SPCE: The most discussed stock on Reddit—be cautious of a short squeeze.Virgin Galactic offers suborbital space tourism at $750,000 per ticket. After suspending commercial flights in 2024, it focused on developing the Delta spacecraft, with glide tests planned for Q3 and powered tests for Q4. Q1 revenue was $1.5 million (not billion), with a market cap of $760 million.This surge was driven by a competitor of Blue Origin facing issues, a short interest of 23.2% triggering a short squeeze, and retail investor FOMO, with trading volume reaching 12 times the daily average and triggering a volatility circuit breaker during trading.The RSI has reached 90 (this indicator fluctuates between 0 and 100; above 70 is considered overbought, and 90 is essentially an extreme level...). Trend assessment: Avoid. No revenue backing, no profit timeline. Highest Reddit discussion volume does not equate to highest investment value.Has the golden dip ended? It’s still too early to say.Answering the question in the article title: We don’t believe it’s a gold rush yet, but if prices continue to fall, RKLB may be approaching a reasonable entry zone.Blue Origin's explosion is a fundamental negative (directly impacting ASTS launch plans), while SpaceX's IPO represents a short-term liquidity shock (but sector attention may increase after the listing); taking profits at high levels is inherently healthy.The long-term thesis for the sector remains intact, but short-term pricing has indeed outpaced fundamentals.If you must rank these four, RKLB is the only one worth seriously tracking—$2.2 billion in orders, a 43% gross margin, consistent beats, and its scarcity is even more pronounced post-SpaceX IPO as the “only publicly traded full-stack space company.”However, the current price of $122 may still be high; a more reasonable range would be $96 to $102.-----This article is based on publicly available information and independent analysis for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please proceed with caution.Data sources: Yahoo Finance · SEC Filing · TradingView · Reddit/ApeWisdom · Stocktwits · CNBC · TipRanks · Simply Wall StTideResearch · June 2, 2026
