Revealed: The Irish county most likely to see snow this Christmas
Snow in Co CavanCavan is Ireland’s best bet for a white Christmas this year, odds specialists have revealed.A new White-ish Christmas Odds Index from Casino.org Ireland claims the county is the most likely to see snow, with implied odds of around 3/1 - while Dublin languishes well down the table at roughly 33/1.Using decades of official Met Éireann data, the odds specialists have built a county-by-county model of “white-ish” Christmas odds: Christmas Days that are both cold and wet enough to realistically support snow or sleet at ground level.Across the country, Casino.org Ireland finds that:At any given county location, a white-ish Christmas is only about a 1 in 16 shot in a typical year.Some parts of Ireland see snow-supporting conditions about one Christmas in nine.Four “storm capital” counties have never recorded a white-ish Christmas at their local Met Éireann site under this strict definition.Snow over Wicklow(Image: Niall Carson/PA Wire)What is a “white-ish Christmas”?Casino.org Ireland defined a “white-ish Christmas” as any Christmas Day that is cold enough and wet enough at ground level for snow or sleet to be realistically on the cards - not just a random flurry at 6am.Technically, that means a mean temperature at or below 2C, and at least 1.0mm of rain, sleet or snow recorded at the county’s Met Éireann station on 25 December.Those conditions don’t guarantee snow in your garden - but they are the kind of wintry, snow-supporting conditions bookmakers and forecasters keep an eye on.Top 10 counties for a white-ish ChristmasThe White-ish Christmas Odds Index looked at every Christmas Day from 1992-2023, combining one km Met Éireann temperature grids (minimum and maximum), and daily rainfall from a representative Met Éireann station in each county.Cavan comes out on top, with a 26.7 per cent chance, followed by Laois (19.4 per cent) and Wicklow (14.8 per cent). Kildare (12.9 per cent) and Mayo (10.3 per cent) finish out the top five. Carlow, Sligo, Donegal, Meath and Leitrim make up the remainder of the top 10, with between six and 10 per cent of a chance of snow.Further down the list, Longford sits at about five percent (roughly 1 in 20, 19/1), Clare, Cork and Roscommon come in around three to four per cent (mid-20s to 30/1).Snowy scenes in Kilboyne, Co MayoDublin, Louth, Offaly and Westmeath each have only one white-ish Christmas in about 30 years at their local point - roughly three per cent, or about 33/1, with Kilkenny, Waterford and Wexford coming in similar at around 1 in 31.At the very bottom, four counties - Galway, Kerry, Limerick and Monaghan - haven’t met the strict “white-ish” criteria on Christmas Day once since 1992 at their chosen Met Éireann station, making them the closest thing Ireland has to white Christmas deserts.In simple terms, Cavan is over eight times as likely as Dublin to see snow-supporting conditions on Christmas Day.Snow in Cavan(Image: @brendasheenan)JJ Lee, spokesperson for Casino.org Ireland, said: “Nobody can truly predict Irish weather - if we could, I’d imagine we’d be fairly wealthy!“But we can put a number on how often Christmas Day has actually been cold and wet enough for snow over the last thirty-odd years.”“Punters love talking about a ‘white Christmas’, so we treated it like any other long-shot: we built a model from Met Éireann data and asked a simple question - what are the odds, county by county, that Christmas Day is cold and wet enough to support snow or sleet? That’s your White-ish Christmas Odds Index.”“If you turned this historic hit rate into bookie-style prices, Cavan would be around 3/1 for snow-supporting conditions this Christmas, Laois around 4/1, while Dublin would be closer to 33/1. In other words, the capital is a real long shot compared to the hills of Cavan and Wicklow.”For the latest top stories from at home and abroad, visit our homepage.
