ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update Week 48 | 24 – 30 November 2025
REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During Week 48 of 2025, a total of 58 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related incidents affecting Indonesia and the Philippines. Additionally, since Week 47, both Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) and Malaysia’s Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) have reported significant flooding in southern Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia, respectively—primarily linked to the effects of Northeast Monsoon and development of Tropical Cyclone SENYAR. In Viet Nam, landslides and flooding that began in Week 46 across central regions continued to be reported by the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA). In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) recorded multiple events across several provinces. These include severe flooding in the northern parts of Sumatra due to heavy rainfall associated with the development of Tropical Cyclone SENYAR, as well as flooding and wind-related disasters in East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding and landslides in Regions VI, MIMAROPA, NIR, VIII, VII, CALABARZON, and CARAGA, as the effects of Shear Line and Tropical Cyclone KOTO.
HIGHLIGHT:
The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and development of Tropical Cyclone SENYAR (previously INVEST 95B) have resulted in significant rainfall, triggering widespread flooding and landslides across the northern parts of Sumatra (Indonesia), Peninsular Malaysia, and southern Thailand. In Indonesia, as of 1 Dec at 1700H UTC+7, BNPB reports approximately 1.5M people affected and 570.7K displaced, with 604 fatalities, 464 individuals still reported missing, and 2.6K injured across Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. In Malaysia, NADMA reports that as of 1 Dec at 1900H UTC+7, a total of 2.6K families (8.8K persons) remain displaced across 75 ECs in Perak, Selangor, Perlis, Terengganu, Kelantan, Pahang, and Kedah. Meanwhile, in Thailand, as of 1 Dec at 1800H UTC+7, flooding continues across southern region. Of the 12 provinces initially affected (1.46M families or 3.99M persons), 9 provinces—Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, Phatthalung, Satun, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat—remain inundated, with 909K families (2.3M persons) affected and 177 fatalities reported (DDPM). The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with BNPB Indonesia, NADMA Malaysia, and DDPM Thailand, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Thailand, and the Philippines, primarily associated with the Northeast Monsoon and the development of Tropical Cyclones KOTO and SENYAR. As of 1 Dec at 2000H UTC+7, TC KOTO was located over northwestern sea of Central Viet Nam East Sea. TC KOTO is expected to continue moving south-southwest at around 5 km/h through the evening of 2 Dec over the waters off Gia Lai–Dak Lak, Viet Nam, and gradually weaken into a low-pressure area (NCHMF). Additionally, another tropical disturbance, INVEST 93W, located approximately 1,450 km east of Visayas, the Philippines, is currently under monitoring for potential development.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over the southern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions to occurs over parts of the western Myanmar Asia. A negative IOD is currently present. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted until January – February 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
